What does Scottish independence movement look like – 10 years on from historic referendum

Ten years ago today the people of Scotland went to the polls to decide on the future of their country in the Scottish independence referendum.

The historic event – which would have seen Scotland break free from the rest of the UK – took place on 18 September 2014 and saw more than two million people (55.3%) vote No and 1.6 million (44.7%) vote Yes.

Following the defeat, then first minister Alex Salmond stepped down and was replaced by Nicola Sturgeon.

Read more – Alex Salmond: ‘I started writing my concession speech when the first result was declared’

Since then, Scotland has welcomed two further SNP first ministers, Humza Yousaf and now John Swinney, who each believe the nation would be better off independent.

Although indyref was touted as a “once in a generation opportunity to follow a different path”, dissatisfaction with the result has led to campaigners continually calling for a second vote.

The movement has not stopped over the past decade, with marches continuing to be held up and down the country in support of Scotland leaving the UK.

The previous Conservative government steadfastly refused to consent to a second referendum.

The argument went all the way to the UK Supreme Court, which ruled in 2022 that the Scottish government cannot legislate for indyref2 without Westminster approval.

It threw a spanner in the works for Ms Sturgeon, who had previously proposed plans to hold a second referendum – known as indyref2 – on 19 October 2023.

With the new Labour government gunning for a Holyrood election win in 2026, it does not look likely Westminster’s stance will change any time soon.

‘2014 was a truly incredible year in Scotland’

MSP Keith Brown, the SNP’s deputy leader, said 2014 was a “truly incredible year” in Scotland.

He added: “In every community in the country, a lively and exciting discussion was taking place about Scotland’s future. The independence debate captured the imagination of the entire country.

“Since then, over the last 10 years, Scotland has been dragged out of the EU against our will, had the disaster of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss imposed on us and Scottish democracy repeatedly trampled over.

“This is what Scotland has had to grapple with following promises made in 2014 which have since been broken.

“The SNP is determined that the next 10 years look very different for Scotland, and independence is at the heart of our vision.

“As an independent country, we would have the powers to make lives, communities and public services better; the chance to rediscover our sense of optimism about what lies ahead.

“Scotland can’t afford more broken Westminster promises, and the SNP believe the time is right for a new national conversation about our shared future as an independent nation.”

‘Would indyref2 be successful?’

When asked whether a second referendum would be successful if held today, polling expert Sir John Curtice told Sky News: “The honest answer is we don’t know.”

Sir John said the opinion polls have not dramatically moved over the past decade, with, on balance, support currently holding on average at around 52% for No and 48% for Yes.

Sir John, a political scientist and professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, said: “It’s not really been lower than that since about 2019.”

A YouGov poll published on Tuesday had No at 56% and Yes at 44%.

Of the 1,063 people aged 16 and over recently surveyed, more than half (51%) said the question of independence had received too much discussion in the last 10 years, while just one in six (18%) felt it should have been given more attention.

‘Indyref2 is basically off until at least 2028’

Alongside Westminster approval to be able to hold indyref2, Holyrood will also need a majority of MSPs in favour of independence.

Sir John noted: “Now, that’s the position at the moment. But, you know, a crucial question is whether or not there will still be a pro-independence majority after 2026.”

The professor said while Labour holds a majority UK government, indyref2 “is not going to happen” and is basically “off until at least 2028”.

If Labour were to return a minority administration at the next general election, the SNP could find itself in a position to leverage a discussion on independence.

However, given how the party lost dozens of MPs in July’s election, falling to just nine, that scenario also looks uncertain at the moment.

Sir John added: “That’s the realpolitik of where we’re at.”

Although former first minister Mr Salmond has since launched the Alba Party, the SNP is the principal political face of the independence movement.

Opposition parties have used the SNP’s recent election defeat to claim Scots are uninterested in another referendum.

However, Sir John said polling data showed that while only 30% of people voted SNP at the general election, 48% supported independence.

He said: “The gap is that there is a minority, but a non-trivial minority, of people who say they would still vote Yes who were not voting for the SNP in July.”

Sir John said the SNP is in “mighty political bother” which “essentially” started with Ms Sturgeon’s resignation.

What followed was a bruising leadership contest, which exposed divisions inside the party, and a successor with a “very weak mandate” who then “made a fatal mistake in trying to get rid of the Greens”.

Sir John said while new first minister Mr Swinney is known to be a “very capable deputy”, it still remains to be seen whether he is able to do the job as Scotland’s leader.

Sir John said: “People are starting to take notice of the SNP’s record of government.”

‘The ongoing police probe and a bad time to be in government’

And then there’s the Police Scotland investigation into the SNP’s funding and finances.

Dubbed Operation Branchform, the long-running probe is linked to the spending of around £600,000 raised by supporters to be earmarked for Scottish independence campaigning. It is understood there have been complaints the ringfenced cash has been used improperly by being spent elsewhere.

Peter Murrell, Ms Sturgeon’s husband and former SNP chief executive, was charged by police earlier this year in connection with the embezzlement of party funds.

The investigation has also seen Ms Sturgeon arrested and released without charge, alongside ex-party treasurer MSP Colin Beattie. Ms Sturgeon continues to deny any wrongdoing.

Sir John said: “Operation Branchform hangs over them and, not least, makes it more difficult for them to raise money.”

The professor said he “wouldn’t want to put any money” on the outcome of the Holyrood election in 2026.

Sir John said: “We just do not know what’s going to happen. It’s a bad time to be in government.

“Looking forward, we now have a Labour government at Westminster which is having to try to deal with a fiscal crisis, a public services crisis and a faltering economy.

“How popular Labour will be by 2026, who knows.

“Some of the difficulties the SNP face and the Scottish government face are the same difficulties the Labour government faces.

“There will be a crucial game about who gets the blame insofar as people are still unhappy. That will depend partly on events and relative performance, but it will also depend on the effectiveness of the politicians.”

‘Constitutional question now intertwined with Brexit question’

Sir John said as well as public attitudes changing “significantly” since 2014, Brexit has also changed the substance of the independence debate.

He said: “There was no relationship between people’s attitudes towards the EU and whether they voted Yes or No.

“There was no relationship between how people voted in 2016 in the Brexit referendum and how they voted in 2014 in the independence referendum.”

However, the constitutional question has since become intertwined with the Brexit question north of the border.

Posing the question whether Scotland would be better inside the UK but outside the EU versus inside the EU but outside the UK, Sir John noted: “On balance at the moment, although we’ve not really had that debate, but on balance, people are more and more inclined to say we’re better inside the EU and outside the UK.”

What the public has to say

In March last year, Sky News visited the four local authority areas that returned a majority Yes vote in 2014 – Dundee, Glasgow, North Lanarkshire and West Dunbartonshire.

Some people spoke of lasting family and friendship fallouts caused by the controversial vote, while many of the Yes supporters voiced their continued hunger for indyref2.

Whether Yes or No, the majority of those interviewed hoped to see the Scottish government tackle more day-to-day issues – like the cost of living crisis, the NHS, and the nation’s perpetually high drug-related deaths.

Now 10 years on from the referendum, we visited the No region of Clackmannanshire to hear what those in the “Wee County” had to say.

‘Sturgeon and Salmond need to bury the hatchet’

Margo Aitken, 76, voted Yes in 2014 and would do so again.

She said the “spark” hasn’t gone, adding: “It’s always there. And I wish I was fit to be able to go on marches.”

The pensioner believes both the Conservatives and new Labour government have “no interest in Scotland whatsoever”.

The SNP voter said the party needs to get its “act together” and stamp out any differing factions within it.

She also called for the SNP to join forces with other pro-independence groups.

Speaking about the fallout between Ms Sturgeon and Mr Salmond, she said: “There’s obviously been strong feelings at some point.

“Why can they not just be adult, get their act together and bury the hatchet – because if they did, they would be a power to be reckoned with.”

‘The country is a nightmare’

Jackie Conroy, 61, voted No in 2014 and would do so again.

She said: “The cost of living crisis is the worst problem at the moment – that’s what the government should be tackling.

“The country is just a nightmare. Instead of independence, the focus should be on everything else – especially the NHS.

“And now they’re taking away the pensioners’ [universal] heating allowance. Who does that – it’s sick. I feel like once you retire you should get everything free.”

‘Everything has changed since 2014’

Rita Anderson, 67, voted Yes in 2014 but is not sure she would again.

She said: “Everything has changed since then. Everyone’s focus should be on the cost of living crisis. It’s been torture.

“I worked all my days, so I’d like to see a big improvement for the pensioners for a start. I get the state pension, but it’s not enough.

“By the time you pay your gas, rent and food, you’re not left with a lot of money. And now the government is cutting the [universal winter fuel payment].

“Although there’s an argument that everything would be better if Scotland was independent, it’s hard to trust that and take a risk given the state of our country right now.”

‘A stronger Scotland within a renewed UK’

The Scottish Conservatives continue to fight for the Union.

MSP Meghan Gallacher, the party’s shadow cabinet secretary for constitution, external affairs and culture, said: “Scotland is best served when both of our governments work together to boost our economy and invest in our communities.

“Given the routing the SNP received up and down Scotland at the general election, the SNP should drop their independence push and focus on what really matters to people in their daily lives, such as reducing NHS waiting times, restoring standards in our schools and keeping our communities safe.”

Meanwhile, Scottish Labour believes the nation’s best days “lie ahead of us”.

MSP Neil Bibby, the party’s constitution spokesperson, said: “Whether you voted Yes or No in 2014, we can come together to change our country for the better.

“In the general election we started the process of delivering change for Scotland by booting out one failing government, and in 2026 we will have an opportunity to do the same again.

“Labour has reset the relationship between Scotland’s two governments and will deliver a stronger Scotland within a renewed UK.”