Conservative MPs on the right of the party have called the government’s Rwanda bill a “partial and incomplete solution” – just 24 hours before it is due to be voted on in parliament.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak revealed the legislation last week in an attempt to revive the scheme that would see asylum seekers arriving by small boat crossings deported to the African nation, after the Supreme Court ruled in November that it was unlawful.
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The law would declare Rwanda a safe country, and empower ministers to ignore parts of the Human Rights Act to limit any appeals against people being removed from the UK.
But some on the right claimed the bill did not go far enough, and would still see asylum seekers able to stay in the country due to international human rights treaties.
The so-called “five families” of Tory right-wing factions, representing around 100 MPs, were invited to a meeting on Monday to discuss legal advice on the legislation.
They were led by the European Research Group (ERG) – which became a household name in the Brexit years.
In the summary of the ERG’s conclusions – put together by their so-called “star chamber” of legal experts – the group said: “The bill overall provides a partial and incomplete solution to the problem of legal challenges in the UK courts being used as stratagems to delay or defeat the removal of illegal migrants to Rwanda.
“The prime minister may well be right when he claims that this is the ‘toughest piece of migration legislation ever put forward by a UK government’, but we do not believe that it goes far enough to deliver the policy as intended.
“Resolving, comprehensively, the issues raised by this analysis would require very significant amendments, some of which would potentially be outside the current title’s scope, and the final bill would look very different.”
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In the ERG’s document, they listed numerous problems they had with the bill, including what they saw as a “limited disapplication” of the UK’s Human Rights Act and only “limited exclusions” of international human rights treaties.
However, the MPs would still not say if they planned to vote against the bill on Tuesday, or instead abstain on it to give them the chance to make amendments to the law at a later parliamentary stage.
Rwanda battle lines drawn – and it’s going to get ugly
Battle lines are now drawn on different sides of the Tory party, and the moment of conflict is fast approaching.
All sides are quite dug in. This is going to get ugly.
The European Research Group of Brexiteers has published its conclusions about Rishi Sunak’s emergency legislation.
They say it needs “very significant” changes – some of which might be outside the scope of this bill – to get their support.
This is a hard ask. Any legislation that emerges from such a negotiation would, they say, “look very different” to what as published by parliament last week
Rishi Sunak already says he went as far as he possibly could. Now this group wants him to go a lot further.
Although we do not yet know how Tory MPs will vote on the bill come Tuesday, this sets up a significant clash either this week or post Christmas.
The ERG’s legal judgement now represents the formal view of the group, but it remains unclear how far their writ can go.
The New Conservatives – the post 2016 Tory right – the Northern Research Group and others were invited to this meeting but did not attend.
Yet it is hard to see many people in these groups not agreeing with this judgement, and at some point displaying their dissatisfaction in the division lobbies.
The clash could yet be deferred beyond Tuesday – we will find that out later. But this is very serious and it is unclear how Rishi Sunak deals with it.
Members of the group confirmed to Sky News that they would be holding another meeting on Monday evening to decide on what action to take in the Commons.
Former immigration minister Robert Jenrick, who resigned last week over his opposition to the bill, is expected to speak at the gathering.
New Conservatives co-chairman Danny Kruger also revealed the MPs would be having “further conversations with government over the course of the next 24 hours”.
At the same time, the more centrist faction of the Conservatives, known as the One Nation caucus, will also meet to discuss the bill, with reports some of their MPs think it goes too far in disavowing human rights legislation.
Mr Sunak’s official spokesperson confirmed on Monday morning that the government would take the unusual move of publishing a summary of its legal advice this afternoon in light of “significant interest” and the “need to be as clear as possible for the public and parliamentarians”.
It is seen as an attempt by the government to woo MPs into supporting the bill, but the ERG’s latest statement deals that hope a massive blow.
Only 29 Tory MPs need to vote against the government – or 57 need to abstain – for the bill to be defeated when it comes to the Commons on Tuesday.
It would be the first time a government bill has fallen at the second reading since the 1980s.